This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut **TROPICAL STORM ELSA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northeast Suffolk, Northern New London, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, and Southwest Suffolk * STORM INFORMATION: - About 390 miles southwest of New York City NY or about 480 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY - 36.3N 78.3W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 21 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Elsa will move toward the area this evening passing near or over the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight, and near or over eastern Long Island and southeast New England on Friday morning. The main threats from Elsa are heavy rain capable of producing flash flooding, tropical storm force winds especially along the south shore of Long Island and across southeast Connecticut, and associated marine and coastal hazards, including very rough seas and dangerous rip currents. A widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts is forecast from this evening into Friday. The highest amounts are forecast to be from NYC to the north and west. Dangerous marine conditions should also develop on the ocean waters south of Long Island, as well as on Long Island Sound, and the south shore and eastern bays of Long Island. Tropical storm force winds will be most likely in those areas, near the south shores of Long Island and southeast Connecticut, and in some higher elevations away from the coastline. Dangerous rip currents will likely occur along the ocean beaches of Long Island. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * TORNADOES: Tornadoes may be possible, with limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * SURGE: Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, with a reasonable worst case scenario of up to 1 foot above ground level. * OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS: Dangerous rip currents are expected at Atlantic ocean beaches through Friday, as well as high surf and beach erosion. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track, since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes can extend well away from the center of the storm. When securing your property, outside preparations should be completed as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. There is threat of tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly in case a tornado is spotted or a Tornado Warning is issued. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown! Closely monitor https://weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see http://getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see http://redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in New York NY around 11 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.