Right now, the name of the game is paper football.
Ranking the NFL’s best teams can only be done by how they look on paper, following a flurry of free-agent activity and a few trades earlier this month. As New England waits to call A.J. Brown a new neighbor, it’s fair to wonder if the Patriots are still the bar to clear in the AFC.
The Broncos, who narrowly lost to the Pats in the conference title game with a backup quarterback, just swung a blockbuster trade for a new No. 1 receiver. The Bills added D.J. Moore and Bradley Chubb. The Ravens signed Trey Hendrickson, while the Texans and Chargers have fortified their offensive lines after they were clobbered by the Patriots in consecutive playoff games.
And then there’s the Chiefs, who have been told by their future Hall of Fame quarterback that he will recover from an ACL tear in time to start Week 1. You didn’t forget about Patrick Mahomes, did you?
Behold, the Herald’s post-free agency AFC contender rankings:
8. Kansas City Chiefs
2025 record: 6-11
2025 DVOA finish: 15th
2026 over-under win total: 10.5
Let’s take Mahomes at his word.
One of the best quarterbacks on the planet, a two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion, returns for the season opener.
Mahomes will still needs more help. Can Kansas City deliver?
Free-agent running back Kenneth Walker was a start, but the Chiefs must nail their 2026 draft to rejoin the contender conversation. Their defense was average at best last year, despite unusually good health, and Mahomes’ weapons outside of Walker are middling. Core dynasty pieces Travis Kelce and Chris Jones are in the twilight of their respective careers.
This was a 6-8 team before Mahomes was lost for the season. Even if he returns to old form, it’s no guarantee the Chiefs are talented enough to find theirs.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
2025 record: 13-4
2025 DVOA finish: 6th
2026 over-under win total: 9.5
Any time a general manager begins referencing future compensatory draft picks when discussing his approach to free agency, it’s a safe bet his team did very little.
Welcome to the Jaguars’ offseason.
Aside from losing star inside linebacker Devin Lloyd to the Panthers, it’s been quiet in Jacksonville, where a Wild Card playoff loss to the Bills soured an otherwise outstanding season. Despite significant improvement, questions should linger about quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jags’ 14th-ranked offense by DVOA. Their talent level is more than enough to make the postseason again, but unless wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter suddenly lives up to his star billing as a former No. 2 draft pick, how else does this team make another leap in 2026?
6. Los Angeles Chargers
2025 record: 11-6
2025 DVOA finish: 17th
2026 over-under win total: 9.5
The most impactful move the Chargers made this offseason was hiring ex-Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel as their new offensive coordinator.
McDaniel is a master of creating open throwing lanes for his quarterback’s first read and a dynamic run game, all through a myriad of shifts and motion. Life will be the easiest it’s ever been for Justin Herbert, thanks to McDaniel and the free agents the Chargers signed to strengthen their run game. Newness aside, returning starting offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, two top-10 players at their positions lost to season-ending injuries, will do wonders for this team and offense.
For a Wild Card team that returns almost its entire defense, save for coordinator Jesse Minter, the Bolts have done enough to put themselves back in the contending conversation this offseason. Now, if only Herbert could stop choking in the playoffs.
5. Baltimore Ravens
2025 record: 8-9
Weighted DVOA finish: 13th
2026 over-under win total: 11.5
One of the league’s longtime underachievers, the Ravens are banking on a coaching change to push them back to the Super Bowl. While new headman Jesse Minter ought to at least fix their defense, the big question may be Lamar Jackson’s health.
Illness has a knack for striking Jackson at the worst times, and without him, Baltimore can’t contend. But the two-time MVP is one of the league’s best players when healthy, and there’s enough firepower around him to win shootouts and defensive slugfests. If Jackson plays a full season, the Ravens need only to find a way to close games against their fellow contenders. Their talent and infrastructure already speak for themselves.
4. Houston Texans
2025 record: 12-5
Weighted DVOA finish: 4th
2026 over-under win total: 9.5
Perhaps no player in the league, even Jackson, can swing his team’s fortunes to greater extremes than CJ Stroud.
Stroud’s development has stalled in Houston, where the Texans’ offensive line has long been a problem but can’t explain his erratic decision-making and dumbfounding turnovers. After a disastrous playoff performance in New England, and with a contract extension now at stake, Stroud should feel plenty of urgency to re-establish himself as one of the league’s better quarterbacks. If he’s right, the Texans have enough weapons to pair an above-average, if not top-10, offense with the best defense in the AFC.
But that’s a lot of “ifs.” And until Houston finds answers, Stroud and Co. will find themselves chasing at least three teams in the AFC.
3. New England Patriots
2025 record: 14-3
2025 DVOA finish: 9th
2026 over-under win total: 9.5
The curse of making the Super Bowl is there’s virtually no place to go but down the following season. And oddsmakers are right to feel that way about the Patriots, thanks to their unusually soft schedule and incredible injury luck last season.
The Pats finished as the healthiest team in the NFL by adjusted games lost, an advanced metric that measures how often a team’s starters and other important players are missing games or playing at less than 100%. It wasn’t until mid-November that they lost a starter to injured reserve. Not only are the Patriots effectively guaranteed to deal with more injuries in 2026, but if they suffer losses at key positions in September, it could threaten to throw their whole season off-track.
Can you name the Pats’ backup left tackle? Or right tackle? Or their next edge rusher after Harold Landry and free-agent addition Dre’Mont Jones? The Patriots are thin at a few premium positions (arguably cornerback, too) and still without a game-breaking pass-catcher.
That all said, they are obviously a legitimate contender. Drake Maye will continue to develop, and young starters like Will Campbell, Jared Wilson and Craig Woodson should, too. Free-agent additions Alijah Vera-Tucker and Kevin Byard will provide instant upgrades. Not to mention all the benefits of continuity under one of the NFL’s best coaching staffs.
The Patriots just made the Super Bowl. Obviously, they’re a threat to do it again.
2. Denver Broncos
2025 record: 14-3
2025 DVOA finish: 7th
2026 over-under win total: 9.5
The case against the Broncos is simple and twofold: Bo Nix may be the worst starting quarterback of the eight on this list, and 79% of Denver’s wins were by one possession, a high percentage likely to regress in 2026.
But aside from that? They check every box.
The Broncos are the most talented team in the conference. Waddle is a yard-after-catch machine who should elevate Nix and the rest of the offense that was sorely missing a difference-maker outside last year. The offensive line remains one of the best in the NFL, and there’s reason to believe the Broncos’ run game should take a step next season.
Defensively, Denver returns virtually every piece of an elite unit that led the league in sacks last year. Patrick Surtain II, the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year, has a claim to being the best cornerback in football. If Nix didn’t get hurt in the divisional round of the playoffs, there’s reason to believe the Broncos would have beaten the Patriots in the AFC title game.
Maybe that alone should be enough to push Denver just a smidge ahead of the Pats, especially with a No. 1 receiver now in the fold.
1. Buffalo Bills
2025 record: 12-5
2025 DVOA finish: 8th
2026 over-under win total: 10.5
The best player, the best quarterback, the best offense.
This is why Buffalo ekes ahead of a more talented team in Denver and the division champion Patriots, who boast a superior head coach-quarterback combination. Josh Allen is capable of single-handedly powering the Bills to the divisional round of the playoffs, where they’ve been six years in a row. Last season’s roster was the worst of that stretch, and Buffalo has since added veteran starters at key areas of weakness with Moore and Chubb.
Whether they are past their primes (likely) is immaterial to the fact the Bills are better than they were last year, when they won at Foxboro as slight road favorites and should have beaten Denver. Buffalo’s run game also has a case for best in the league, thanks to Allen, Pro Bowl running back James Cook and a bruising offensive line unrivaled in the AFC. Historically, offensive performance is far more consistent year-to-year than defensive play, which bodes well for the team boasting the NFL’s second-ranked offense by DVOA. That brings us to the other side of the ball.
New defensive coordinator Jim Leonard served as the Broncos’ defensive pass game coordinator the past two seasons when they ranked fifth and 10th against the pass by DVOA. The bet here is Leonard’s more multiple and aggressive system elevates Buffalo’s 20th-ranked defense to a level high enough where Allen doesn’t need to carry this team every week. If so, the road to the Super Bowl just might run through Orchard Park.
