Updated March 3, 2026, 12:35 p.m. CT
Mizzou got hot at just the right time, and now all of the major national projections have the Tigers in the March Madness field.
The question now is more or less what seed Missouri basketball will be when the NCAA Tournament field is announced. After wins over then-No. 22 Tennessee and Mississippi State last week, the Tigers (20-9, 10-6 SEC) are looking good for a Selection Sunday shoutout.
Mizzou will face Oklahoma on Tuesday night on the road, before rounding out the regular season with Arkansas on Saturday at Mizzou Arena. With back-to-back wins, the Tigers guarantee a 3-seed and double-bye in the SEC Tournament.
Here’s what Missouri’s current tournament résumé looks like, and a glimpse at where the experts currently have the Tigers seeded and tabbed to travel for March Madness. All of the outlets’ projections were updated on the morning of Tuesday, March 3:
Current Missouri basketball NCAA Tournament résumé for 2026 March Madness
Missouri’s NET ranking: No. 53
Quad 1 record: 5-6
Quad 2 record: 5-3
Quad 3 record: 2-0
Quad 4 record: 8-0
Missouri has moved up five spots in the NET rankings and is now No. 53 nationally after its win over Mississippi State.
The quadrant system accounts for the location of the game and the opposing team’s NET ranking. Quad 1 games, for instance, are at home against teams ranked Nos. 1-30 in the NET, on a neutral court against teams ranked Nos. 1-50, and on the road against teams ranked Nos. 1-75.
Both of Mizzou’s remaining games are Quad 1 matchups. Oklahoma, which MU faces Tuesday night on the road, is ranked No. 62 in the NET, and Arkansas is No. 19.
ESPN: Missouri basketball a 9-seed vs Clemson in San Diego
ESPN has moved Missouri up another seed line between games, now projecting that the Tigers will be on the 9-line in the Big Dance. In Joe Lunardi’s most-recent bracket, Mizzou faces an 8-seeded Clemson in San Diego, California.
The other two teams in the bracket are 1-seed Arizona and 16-seed Tennessee State. The team that advances from this part of the bracket would go to San Jose, California, to play in the Sweet 16.
CBS Sports: Ben McCollum rematch for Missouri basketball
Him again?
CBS Sports also has Mizzou as a 9-seed in its latest bracket projections, but the outlet has the Tigers taking on 8-seeded Iowa in the Round of 64. Iowa is coached by Ben McCollum, who led Drake to a first-round win over Missouri last season before being hired by the Hawkeyes.
No. 1 Duke would be the likely team waiting for the winner in this projection. That’s hardly the friendliest draw, all things considered.
USA Today: Tigers a 10-seed in OKC
After spending a couple weeks on the outside looking in, Mizzou has moved into the field in USA Today’s newest bracket projection. As of Tuesday morning, the Tigers are listed as a 10-seed, with a trip to Oklahoma City on deck to face 7-seeded Saint Mary’s in the Round of 64.
In this forecast, the winner likely would next see a 2-seeded Iowa State.
Bart Torvik: Best at-large chance to date
We mentioned over the weekend that Mizzou had almost certainly booked its spot in the field with its dominant win over Mississippi State, which marked a 20th win on the year and 10th win in SEC play.
The analytics site Bart Torvik is backing that up.
Torvik currently gives Mizzou a 95.9% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as of Feb. 27, which is based on 10,000 simulations run through its T-Ranketology ‘TourneyCast’ projections. That’s the best outlook yet this season for Missouri.
The odds are up from 78.1% this past Friday, before the Tigers’ win at Mississippi State, which sealed a sixth win in eight games for Dennis Gates’ team.
If we stretch Torvik’s simulations out into a bracket, that makes Mizzou a 9-seed.
