UK desempleo baja inesperadamente a 4.9%

The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom unexpectedly fell to 4.9% in the three months ending February, according to official figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This marks a decline from the 5.2% rate recorded in the three months to January, contrary to expectations that the rate would remain unchanged. Despite the drop in unemployment, wage growth has slowed significantly. Excluding bonuses, average earnings increased by 3.6% year-on-year between December and February, the weakest pace since late 2020. When bonuses are included, wage growth rose by 3.8%, down from 4.1% in the previous quarter. The ONS noted that the decline in unemployment appears to reflect a slight rise in the number of people who are no longer actively seeking work, particularly among students balancing studies with job searches. The economic inactivity rate—measuring the proportion of people not working and not looking for work—increased to 21% in the December to February period, up from 20.7% in the prior quarter. The data, largely collected before the outbreak of the conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran on 28 February, does not yet capture the full impact of the war on the labour market. However, analysts warn that sustained increases in energy prices resulting from the conflict could affect employment in the coming months. Early estimates indicate that payrolled employment decreased by 11,000 in March, the first month of the war, while job vacancies fell to their lowest level in nearly five years, reaching 711,000 for the January to March period. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, observed that the February data showed signs of stabilization in the labour market prior to the conflict but cautioned that a reversal may be imminent as firms respond to rising costs and weaker demand by scaling back hiring. She added that unemployment is likely to trend upward in the coming months.