AI could cause global economic downturn, Andrew Bailey warns G20

Las advertencias de Andrew Bailey ante el G20 y el FSB

El sistema financiero internacional enfrenta vulnerabilidades significativas debido al auge acelerado de los modelos de inteligencia artificial más avanzados. En una carta dirigida a los ministros de finanzas y gobernadores de bancos centrales del G20 en su calidad de presidente del Consejo de Estabilidad Financiera, Andrew Bailey alertó sobre los riesgos sistémicos que emergen en los mercados globales. En un open letter to finance ministers in the US on Monday, he said companies around the world should prepare for security breaches involving simultaneous disruption across multiple firms. Earlier this month, a group of 100 firms, including Google, Microsoft, Anthropic and OpenAI, urged countries and groups to beef up their cyber defences before AI grows powerful enough to override them.

El gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra destacó que la combinación de mercados bursátiles sobrevalorados, el aumento en el endeudamiento de los inversores y la alta concentración de capital en un grupo reducido de gigantes tecnológicos puede amplificar cualquier ajuste futuro en los mercados. Según el informe publicado por el organismo internacional, las tecnologías de frontera muestran una autonomía cada vez mayor que amenaza la estabilidad de infraestructuras interconectadas. «The issue is not simply that investors are borrowing more, but that leverage is interacting with high valuations and market concentration, in particular the increasing cross-investment between artificial intelligence (AI) companies and hyper scalers, in a way that could amplify a future market correction,he said. Bailey has called on those in charge of financial security to developappropriate steps to support safe and responsible model release and deployment on a global basis. Bailey, who was writing in his capacity as chairman of the Financial Stability Board international watchdog (FSB), expressed concern about thevolatility» prompted by the effect of energy supply shocks caused by the US-Iran war.

Andrew Bailey, gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra y presidente del FSB

In a two-page letter sent to international finance ministers and central bank governors as part of his role as chair of the international Financial Stability Board (FSB), Bailey said “frontier” AI models were showing increasingly sophisticated autonomy and problem-solving abilities, as well as threat capabilities. He said the models risked destabilising the highly interconnected global financial system via cyber-disruption that can spread across jurisdictions. Bailey wrote to G20 finance ministers and central bank governors before their meeting in North Carolina, US, this week: “Recent developments have also highlighted to me that many jurisdictions do not have the protocols in place to manage the development, release, and deployment of advanced frontier AI models, heightening risks for the financial sector and beyond”. Last month, a letter signed by 1,367 researchers and engineers at frontier AI labs – mainly OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind – also shone a light on the concerns of the engineers working on the technology every day. It stated: There is a real risk that capability development rapidly accelerates beyond our ability to understand or control the resulting systems, before going on to ask for the US government’s support for an international effort to develop the technical and governance tools needed to deliberately pace the frontier of automated AI development. Earlier this month, it also emerged that OpenAI staff observed signs of rogue behaviour among its cutting-edge AI agents weeks before they escaped their training environment to launch an unprecedented hacking crusade that spread global alarm. Extending this theme into the world of financial policy, Bailey continued: “For the financial system, the most immediate concern is the potential impact of frontier AI on cyber-risk. Frontier AI may have the ability materially to alter the speed, scale and economics of cyber-risk, which could undermine market confidence system-wide, especially due to highly concentrated third-party service providers.” Bailey called on those tasked with safeguarding the world’s financial systems to prioritise appropriate steps to support safe and responsible model release and deployment on a global basis.

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Vulnerabilidades cruzadas entre la inteligencia artificial y los mercados

Los riesgos no se limitan al valor bursátil de las empresas tecnológicas. Las autoridades regulatorias observan con preocupación la interconexión directa entre las compañías de inteligencia artificial y los proveedores de servicios en la nube a gran escala. Andrew Bailey ha señalado que la volatilidad macroeconómica actual se ve agravada por la presión en los suministros de energía derivada del conflicto entre Estados Unidos e Irán. In a letter to G20 finance ministers on Monday, Bailey said markets remained vulnerable to a potentially disorderly correction that could spread across borders, particularly given fragilities in sovereign debt markets. Mr Bailey warned in his letter of the «volatilitycaused by the impact of energy shocks from the US-Iran war. Writing in his capacity as chairman of the Financial Stability Board, and international watchdog, he said thatmarkets remain vulnerable to a potentially disorderly correction that could spread across borders, particularly given fragilities in sovereign debt markets». I remain concerned therefore that a large shock or combination of shocks could concurrently trigger multiple vulnerabilities, he added.

A esta situación se suman las alertas emitidas por ingenieros y desarrolladores de laboratorios punteros de inteligencia artificial. Recientemente, profesionales del sector solicitaron apoyo gubernamental para frenar un ritmo de desarrollo que podría superar la capacidad de control humano. Paralelamente, los mercados financieros internacionales continúan evaluando la fragilidad de la deuda soberana frente a correcciones imprevistas.

Inversión soberana y respuestas del gobierno británico

Mientras se debate la estabilidad macroeconómica en el extranjero, el gobierno del Reino Unido ha movilizado recursos para fortalecer su propia infraestructura tecnológica. El canciller John Healey anunció un fondo dotado con £100m destinado a impulsar a las empresas emergentes de inteligencia artificial dentro del territorio británico. The fund is part of the Government’s efforts to grow the country’s so-called «Sovereign AI» capacity, homegrown AI technology aimed at ensuring the UK is not dependent on services and infrastructure developed abroad. Ministers want to see companies compete for the funding to help tackle challenges like cutting waiting lists in the NHS, and improving patient care, as well as bolstering cybersecurity and defence.

La iniciativa busca consolidar la capacidad de inteligencia artificial soberana del país y reducir la dependencia de servicios desarrollados en el exterior. Las autoridades planean destinar estos recursos a resolver retos estructurales, tales como la reducción de listas de espera en el Servicio Nacional de Salud, el refuerzo de la ciberseguridad nacional y el desarrollo de capacidades de defensa. Britain is home to some of the most innovative AI companies in the world, and this government is backing them to start, scale and succeed here in the UK, Mr Healey said. This first-of-its-kind competition will help make sure more of the benefits of AI are felt in every UK postcode, he said. As G20 countries seek to make the most of AI opportunities, I'm determined Britain has a lead role in harnessing this technology to drive more jobs, better public services, and growth that's UK-wide, he added.