After several months of being below, the dollar broke the barrier of S/ 3.80 and erased the sol’s gains in 2023 at the end of September. And today it closed the session at S/ 3.83 per dollar. What are the reasons that explain this situation? Adrián Armas, Central Manager of Economic Studies at the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) gave a general overview of the context.
“The effect responds to a worldwide phenomenon. There has been a strengthening of the dollar worldwide. That strengthening is related, on the one hand, to announcements from the Federal Reserve authorities regarding high interest rates for a longer period of time; and positive data from the US economy, including today’s employment creation figure, which was higher than what the market was expecting,” said Armas.
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The manager explained that in the case of the United States, “a tight labor market, overheated, with a services sector with strong demand, has caused international interest rates to rise significantly in recent weeks.” In addition, the interest rate on US Treasury bonds at 10 years has reached levels not seen since 2007, around 4.8%. “That has strengthened the dollar,” he emphasized.
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In the case of the sol in particular, he commented, there is no news, “it has depreciated following the region,” but to a lesser extent due to the exchange rate intervention by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru aimed at reducing exchange rate volatility.
“It is an evolution that is related to the strengthening of the dollar itself. This does not necessarily imply that it will continue. It will depend on the new information available. The BCRP has the instruments and the level of international reserves to reduce situations of high volatility,” he pointed out.
En resumen, el dólar ha roto la barrera de los S/ 3.80 y ha borrado las ganancias del sol en 2023 al finalizar setiembre. Esta situación se debe a un fenómeno mundial de fortalecimiento del dólar, impulsado por anuncios de la Reserva Federal y datos positivos de la economía estadounidense. El mercado laboral ajustado y sobrecalentado en Estados Unidos, junto con las altas tasas de interés internacionales y la fortaleza del bono del Tesoro a 10 años, han contribuido al fortalecimiento del dólar. En cuanto al sol, se ha depreciado siguiendo a la región, pero en menor medida debido a la intervención cambiaria del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. Sin embargo, el fortalecimiento del dólar no implica necesariamente que esto vaya a continuar, ya que dependerá de la nueva información disponible. El BCRP cuenta con los instrumentos y reservas internacionales necesarios para reducir situaciones de alta volatilidad.
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